REBELLION OPTIMISM AND POLITICAL REFORMS IN SOUTH SUDAN
Keywords:
Rebellion Optimism, Political Reforms, Peaceful Options, Misgovernment
Abstract
After its 22-year war of independence, the Republic of South Sudan has survived numerous armed rebellions attempting to force political reforms. This has happened despite the availability of various peaceful options which have been used elsewhere in the world to introduce political reforms. These peaceful options include: peaceful protests, democratic elections, national dialogue, and parliamentary legislation. In South Sudan however, these options have never become a priority for political leaders seeking political reforms. Studies indicate that rebellions have led to infernal consequences such as the loss of human lives, wanton destruction property, massive civil displacement, economic crises, and the collapse of national institutions. Because these consequences are severe, the rebellions in South Sudan are arguably just—but taking different dynamics leading to further destruction and a risk of state failure, one wonders: what makes political leaders become optimistic in choosing rebellion over peaceful options to force political reforms? Choosing rebellion over peaceful alternatives is what this paper refers to as “rebellion optimism”. Leaders become positive about the potential outcomes of their choice of rebellion as a means of forcing the political reforms they desire. The paper is divided into three sections including: post-Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and post-independence political transition; post-CPA and post-independence military arrangements; and citizen participation in governance. The study argues that misgovernment has undermined security sector reforms and citizen participation in public affairs. This has resulted in the persistent increase of dissenting voices that give hope to political dissidents, who in turn offer the promise alternative government that can be achieved through rebellion. Rebellion optimists have exploited citizens’ dissatisfaction with wanting government services as a main tool to mobilize them to fight the government.
References
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Craze, J., Tubiana, J., & Gramizzi, C. (2016). A state of disunity: Conflict dynamics in unity state, South Sudan, 2013-15.
Creswell, J. W., & Creswell, J. D. (2017). Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches. Sage publications.
Cronin, P., Ryan, F., & Coughlan, M. (2008). Undertaking a literature review: a step-by-step approach. British Journal of Nursing, 17(1), 38–43.
Crotty, M., & Crotty, M. F. (1998). The foundations of social research: Meaning and perspective in the research process. Sage.
Denscombe, M. (2014). The good research guide: for small-scale social research projects. McGraw-Hill Education (UK).
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Laitin, D. D. (2001). Secessionist rebellion in the former Soviet Union. Comparative Political Studies, 34(8), 839–861.
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Malwal, B. (2014). Sudan and South Sudan: From one to two. Springer.
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Pinaud, Clemence. (2014). South Sudan: Civil war, predation and the making of a military aristocracy. African Affairs, 113(451), 192–211.
Pinaud, Clémence. (2021). War and Genocide in South Sudan. Cornell University Press.
Pospisil, J. (2014). Civil War in South Sudan: Bloody Ethno-Politics and a Failed International Engagement.
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Rands, R. (2010). In Need of Review: SPLA Transformation in 2006-10 and beyond. Citeseer.
Roessler, P., & Verhoeven, H. (2017). Why comrades go to war: liberation politics and the outbreak of Africa’s deadliest conflict. Oxford University Press.
Rolandsen, Ø. H. (2015). Another civil war in South Sudan: The failure of guerrilla government? Journal of Eastern African Studies, 9(1), 163–174.
Rugeley, T. (2009). Rebellion Now and Forever: Mayas, Hispanics, and Caste War Violence in Yucatán, 1800–1880. Stanford University Press.
Sales Jr, W. W., & Sales, W. W. (1994). From civil rights to Black liberation: Malcolm X and the organization of Afro-American unity. South End Press.
Saul, G. (1993). Sudan: A country divided.
Slevitch, L. (2011). Qualitative and quantitative methodologies compared: Ontological and epistemological perspectives. Journal of Quality Assurance in Hospitality & Tourism, 12(1), 73–81.
Southall, R. (2013). Liberation movements in power: Party & state in Southern Africa. James Currey London.
Taylor, K.-Y. (2016). From# BlackLivesMatter to black liberation. Haymarket Books.
Tounsel, C. (2016). Khartoum Goliath: SPLM/SPLA Update and Martial Theology during the Second Sudanese Civil War. Journal of Africana Religions, 4(2), 129–153.
Vidmar, J. (2011). South Sudan and the international legal framework governing the emergence and delimitation of new states. Tex. Int’l LJ, 47, 541.
Virk, K., & Nganje, F. (2016). The peacebuilding role of civil society in South Sudan.
Warner, L. A. (2018). The role of military integration in war-to-peace transitions: the case of South Sudan (2006-2013). King’s College London.
Wassara, S. (2014). Predictable causes and prospects of the current political crisis in South Sudan. Justice and Security Research Programme Blog.
Wassara, S. S. (2015). South Sudan: state sovereignty challenged at infancy. Journal of Eastern African Studies, 9(4), 634–649.
Wendt, A. (1999). Social theory of international politics (Vol. 67). Cambridge University Press.
Yihun, B. B. (2013). Ethiopia’s role in South Sudan’s march to independence, 1955-1991. African Studies Quarterly, 14(1/2), 35.
Young, J. (2012). The fate of Sudan: The origins and consequences of a flawed peace process. Zed Books Ltd.
Young, J. (2015). A fractious rebellion: Inside the SPLM-IO.
Young, J., & Griffin, M. (2007). Emerging North-South tensions and prospects for a return to war. Small Arms Survey Geneva.
Young, J., & Lebrun, E. (2006). The south Sudan defence forces in the wake of the Juba declaration.
Young, R. C. G., & Postcolonialism, A. (2003). Very Short Introduction. New York, Oxford University Press.
Zambakari, C. (2013). Post-Referendum South Sudan: Political Violence, New Sudan and Democratic Nation-Building. Georgetown Public Policy Review.
Ali, N. M. (2011). Gender and statebuilding in South Sudan.
Arnold, M., & LeRiche, M. (2013). South Sudan: from revolution to independence. Oxford University Press (UK).
Banks, A. M. (2007). Expanding participation in constitution making: challenges and opportunities. Wm. & Mary L. Rev., 49, 1043.
Bayissa, R. (2007). The Derg-SPLM/A cooperation: an aspect of Ethio-Sudan proxy wars. Ethiopian Journal of the Social Sciences and Humanities, 5(2).
Bereketeab, R. (2017). National liberation movements as government in Africa. Routledge.
Blanchard, L. P. (2014). The Crisis in South Sudan. Congressional Research Service.
Boswell, A. (2019). INSECURE POWER AND VIOLENCE.
Breitung, C., Paes, W.-C., & Vondervoort, L. van de. (2016). In need of a critical re-think: Security sector reform in South Sudan.
Brosché, J., & Höglund, K. (2016). Crisis of governance in South Sudan: electoral politics and violence in the world’s newest nation. Journal of Modern African Studies, 54(1), 67–90.
Brosché, J., & Höglund, K. (2017). Riek Machar: Warlord-Doctor in South Sudan. Warlord Democrats in Africa: Ex-Military Leaders and Electoral Politics, 199–221.
Carver, C. S., Scheier, M. F., & Segerstrom, S. C. (2010). Optimism. Clinical Psychology Review, 30(7), 879–889.
Craze, J., Tubiana, J., & Gramizzi, C. (2016). A state of disunity: Conflict dynamics in unity state, South Sudan, 2013-15.
Creswell, J. W., & Creswell, J. D. (2017). Research design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches. Sage publications.
Cronin, P., Ryan, F., & Coughlan, M. (2008). Undertaking a literature review: a step-by-step approach. British Journal of Nursing, 17(1), 38–43.
Crotty, M., & Crotty, M. F. (1998). The foundations of social research: Meaning and perspective in the research process. Sage.
Denscombe, M. (2014). The good research guide: for small-scale social research projects. McGraw-Hill Education (UK).
Fanon, F. (1961). The wretched of the earth. Grove/Atlantic, Inc.
Fukuyama, F. (2018). Identity: Contemporary identity politics and the struggle for recognition. Profile books.
Gebremichael, M., Kifle, A. A., & Kidane, A. (2018). South Sudan Conflict Insight.
Horn, G.-R. (2007). The spirit of’68: rebellion in Western Europe and North America, 1956-1976. Oxford University Press.
Johnson, Douglas H. (2008). Why Abyei matters: the breaking point of Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement? African Affairs, 107(426), 1–19.
Johnson, Douglas H. (2014a). Briefing: the crisis in South Sudan. African Affairs, 113(451), 300–309.
Johnson, Douglas H. (2014b). The political crisis in South Sudan. African Studies Review, 57(3), 167–174.
Johnson, Douglas Hamilton. (2003). The root causes of Sudan’s civil wars. Indiana University Press.
Kimenyi, M. S. (2012). Making federalism work in South Sudan. ONE YEAR AFTER INDEPENDENCE, 16.
Kindersley, N., & Rolandsen, Ø. H. (2016). Briefing: prospects for peace and the UN Regional Protection Force in South Sudan. African Affairs, 1–12.
Kindersley, N., & Rolandsen, Ø. H. (2017). Civil War on a Shoestring: Rebellion in South Sudan’s Equatoria Region. Civil Wars, 19(3), 308–324.
Knopf, Kate Almquist. (2013). Fragility and state-society relations in South Sudan. Government Printing Office.
Knopf, Katherine Almquist. (2016). Ending South Sudan’s civil war (Vol. 77). Council on Foreign Relations.
Krause, J. (2019). Stabilization and local conflicts: communal and civil war in South Sudan. Ethnopolitics, 18(5), 478–493.
Laitin, D. D. (2001). Secessionist rebellion in the former Soviet Union. Comparative Political Studies, 34(8), 839–861.
Lewis, J. I. (2017). How does ethnic rebellion start? Comparative Political Studies, 50(10), 1420–1450.
Mai, N. J. H., & James, N. (2015). Role of Women in Peace-Building in South Sudan. JSTOR.
Malwal, B. (2014). Sudan and South Sudan: From one to two. Springer.
Mjøen, A. O. (2015). Women’s participation in statebuilding with a focus on South Sudan, Rwanda and Nepal. Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås.
Nyaba, P. A. (2016). South Sudan: The state we aspire to. Rafiki for trading & Investment Company Limited.
Nyaba, P. A. (2019). South Sudan: Elites, Ethnicity, Endless Wars and the Stunted State. Mkuki na Nyota Publishers.
Nyadera, I. N. (2018). South Sudan conflict from 2013 to 2018: Rethinking the causes, situation and solutions. African Journal on Conflict Resolution, 18(2), 59–86.
O’Brien, A. (2009). Shots in the dark: The 2008 South Sudan civilian disarmament campaign. Small Arms Survey Geneva.
Omia, D. O., & Obonyo, J. A. (2015). Building Legitimate and Accountable government in South Sudan Re-thinking inclusive governance in the post CPA-2005. Development, 5(8).
Omoleye, A. U., & Joshua, S. (2018). The South Sudan War: Causes and Implications for National Integration. AKSU Foumal OJ Social And Management Sciences, 1(8), 79–96.
Pinaud, Clemence. (2014). South Sudan: Civil war, predation and the making of a military aristocracy. African Affairs, 113(451), 192–211.
Pinaud, Clémence. (2021). War and Genocide in South Sudan. Cornell University Press.
Pospisil, J. (2014). Civil War in South Sudan: Bloody Ethno-Politics and a Failed International Engagement.
Protocol, M. (2002). Machakos. July.
Rands, R. (2010). In Need of Review: SPLA Transformation in 2006-10 and beyond. Citeseer.
Roessler, P., & Verhoeven, H. (2017). Why comrades go to war: liberation politics and the outbreak of Africa’s deadliest conflict. Oxford University Press.
Rolandsen, Ø. H. (2015). Another civil war in South Sudan: The failure of guerrilla government? Journal of Eastern African Studies, 9(1), 163–174.
Rugeley, T. (2009). Rebellion Now and Forever: Mayas, Hispanics, and Caste War Violence in Yucatán, 1800–1880. Stanford University Press.
Sales Jr, W. W., & Sales, W. W. (1994). From civil rights to Black liberation: Malcolm X and the organization of Afro-American unity. South End Press.
Saul, G. (1993). Sudan: A country divided.
Slevitch, L. (2011). Qualitative and quantitative methodologies compared: Ontological and epistemological perspectives. Journal of Quality Assurance in Hospitality & Tourism, 12(1), 73–81.
Southall, R. (2013). Liberation movements in power: Party & state in Southern Africa. James Currey London.
Taylor, K.-Y. (2016). From# BlackLivesMatter to black liberation. Haymarket Books.
Tounsel, C. (2016). Khartoum Goliath: SPLM/SPLA Update and Martial Theology during the Second Sudanese Civil War. Journal of Africana Religions, 4(2), 129–153.
Vidmar, J. (2011). South Sudan and the international legal framework governing the emergence and delimitation of new states. Tex. Int’l LJ, 47, 541.
Virk, K., & Nganje, F. (2016). The peacebuilding role of civil society in South Sudan.
Warner, L. A. (2018). The role of military integration in war-to-peace transitions: the case of South Sudan (2006-2013). King’s College London.
Wassara, S. (2014). Predictable causes and prospects of the current political crisis in South Sudan. Justice and Security Research Programme Blog.
Wassara, S. S. (2015). South Sudan: state sovereignty challenged at infancy. Journal of Eastern African Studies, 9(4), 634–649.
Wendt, A. (1999). Social theory of international politics (Vol. 67). Cambridge University Press.
Yihun, B. B. (2013). Ethiopia’s role in South Sudan’s march to independence, 1955-1991. African Studies Quarterly, 14(1/2), 35.
Young, J. (2012). The fate of Sudan: The origins and consequences of a flawed peace process. Zed Books Ltd.
Young, J. (2015). A fractious rebellion: Inside the SPLM-IO.
Young, J., & Griffin, M. (2007). Emerging North-South tensions and prospects for a return to war. Small Arms Survey Geneva.
Young, J., & Lebrun, E. (2006). The south Sudan defence forces in the wake of the Juba declaration.
Young, R. C. G., & Postcolonialism, A. (2003). Very Short Introduction. New York, Oxford University Press.
Zambakari, C. (2013). Post-Referendum South Sudan: Political Violence, New Sudan and Democratic Nation-Building. Georgetown Public Policy Review.
